FC Oss 1-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 29% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.75
1/2
7%
21.45
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
8%
9.52
X/2
11%
4.24
X/X
16%
5.54
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.18
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+4.5pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.6pp
48%
Away Win
59%
-11.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Oss EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 62%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.01/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.27
+4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
16.0 Crosses 21.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Oss
0W-0D-6L
AWAY NAC Breda
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.97 xG 1.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
306 Passes 353
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
20.01.2023 FC Oss FC Oss 1-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
19.08.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
29.04.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
30.10.2021 FC Oss FC Oss 1-3 HT 1-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
01.03.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Oss
1-1
AWAY NAC Breda
0.90 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
300 Passes 383
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Oss vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Oss and NAC Breda couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Oss had 45% of the ball to NAC Breda's 55%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 0.90 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FC Oss and 2.33 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of FC Oss vs NAC Breda?

FC Oss 1-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Oss vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated an NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Oss 23%, draw 29%, NAC Breda 48%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ BTTS No
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