Cambuur 1-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.98
Over 2.5
52%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.39
No
49%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.45
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.49
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.76
X/2
14%
7.8
X/X
10%
6.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.6
2/2
11%
4.9
2/X
8%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-11.9pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+9.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
30%
+18.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
70%
-18.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
68%
-16.6pp
49%
BTTS No
32%
+16.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambuur EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.88/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.28
+1% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
24.4 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambuur
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Helmond Sport
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.69 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
381 Passes 281
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
16.04.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 4-1 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.10.2020 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-5 HT 1-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
13.09.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 5-1 HT 3-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.01.2019 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-1 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
19.10.2018 Cambuur Cambuur 3-1 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambuur
1-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
0.84 xG 0.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 11
276 Passes 399
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 38
17 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cambuur vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambuur and Helmond Sport couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Cambuur at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cambuur had 42% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 58%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.84 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Cambuur and 1.00 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?

Cambuur 1-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cambuur 44%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cambuur), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cambuur) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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