Willem II 3-2 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.82
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
14%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.0
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
7%
13.15
X/X
9%
6.72
2/1 EV+ ✓
12%
20.65
2/2
12%
9.65
2/X
6%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-11.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.3pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.81/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.54
+3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
24.9 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Telstar
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.45 xG 1.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
329 Passes 318
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-5 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
05.05.2023 Telstar Telstar 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
19.08.2022 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
21.04.2014 Willem II Willem II 4-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
01.11.2013 Telstar Telstar 3-1 HT 2-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
05.03.2012 Telstar Telstar 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
3-2
AWAY Telstar
0.86 xG 1.12
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
429 Passes 245
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II nicked a narrow win over Telstar 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Willem II had 61% of the ball to Telstar's 39%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.86 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Willem II and 1.00 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Telstar?

Willem II 3-2 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Willem II 57%, draw 21%, Telstar 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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