Fortaleza 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.88
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
8%
9.86
X/X
12%
4.1
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
9%
8.79
2/X
7%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
55%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +28%
1.62/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.23
-5% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
347 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.3 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.69 xG 1.29
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
254 Passes 433
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
24.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
02.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
25.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
25.10.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.06.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-2 HT 0-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
28.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
307 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza and Atletico Mineiro shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Fortaleza at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Fortaleza had 46% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 54%, shots finished 14-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortaleza and 1.67 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Atletico Mineiro?

Fortaleza 1-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 51%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fortaleza), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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