Sao Paulo 3-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 32% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
22%
3.9
X/2
10%
8.38
X/X
14%
4.36
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
9%
7.03
2/X
5%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.8pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.25/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.39
-6% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
375 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.5 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.51 xG 0.93
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
476 Passes 285
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
08.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
21.05.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
05.08.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
29.07.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
22.11.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
3-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
353 Passes 369
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo swept aside Vasco da Gama 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 48% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 52%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.33 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Sao Paulo 3-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 48%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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