Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
4-2
HT 2-1
Vasco da Gama
BR1
1-2
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
BRK
2-0
HT 1-0
Vasco da Gama
BRK
1-1
HT 1-1
Vasco da Gama
BR1
2-1
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
Vasco da Gama 4-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Vasco da Gama cruised past Sao Paulo 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Vasco da Gama had 41% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 59%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.30 to 0.36.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.67 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Vasco da Gama 4-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 28%, draw 26%, Sao Paulo 46%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.