Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Jun 2024

Atletico Paranaense
1-1 HT 1-0
Corinthians
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
8%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 31% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.15
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.3
X/1
17%
3.85
X/2
11%
9.78
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
7%
7.82
2/X
9%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.4pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Paranaense v Corinthians — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.63/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.36
+19% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
393 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.7 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Corinthians
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 1.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 Passes 458
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.06.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
09.10.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.06.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
28.11.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.08.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Corinthians — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.42 xG 1.18
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
310 Passes 264
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 54% of the ball to Corinthians's 46%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.42 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.00 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 50%, draw 28%, Corinthians 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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