Fluminense 0-1 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.8
6+ Goals
12%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.72
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
8%
15.65
X/1
8%
8.42
X/2
16%
3.96
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.38
2/X
5%
15.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.29/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.00
+23% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
14.5 Crosses 18.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Flamengo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
406 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
16.07.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
02.06.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
17.05.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
10.04.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 4-1 HT 2-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRC1
02.04.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRC1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
0-1
AWAY Flamengo
0.26 xG 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
2 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
391 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
5 Box Touches 34
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo squeezed past Fluminense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Fluminense had 54% of the ball to Flamengo's 46%, shots finished 2-14, expected goals 0.26 to 2.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Flamengo?

Fluminense 0-1 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 28%, draw 24%, Flamengo 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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