Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.55
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 34% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.32
X/2
14%
7.13
X/X
12%
4.0
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
8%
5.78
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.9pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.49/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.19
-5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +39%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.7 Crosses 17.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.22 xG 1.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
11.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-2 HT 1-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
09.04.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
04.11.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
20.07.2019 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
4-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
2.72 xG 0.70
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
589 Passes 314
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 12
29 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia ran out comfortable winners over Cruzeiro 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 64% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 36%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.72 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bahia and 1.17 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Cruzeiro?

Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bahia 42%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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