Millonarios 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.24/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.30
-7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
325 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 74%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.1 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 1.84
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
336 Passes 282
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 HT 0-2 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
18.08.2022 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-3 HT 2-2 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
24.03.2014 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
2-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.79 xG 0.42
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
275 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Millonarios as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millonarios had 52% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 48%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 0.79 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Millonarios and 1.00 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Millonarios 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 46%, draw 29%, Fortaleza CEIF 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millonarios) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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