Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
35%
3.11
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
35%
Draw
29%
+6.0pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 32%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.13/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.18
-1% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
14.4 Crosses 13.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
260 Passes 456
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
18.08.2022 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-3 HT 2-2 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
24.03.2014 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1-2
AWAY Millonarios
1.84 xG 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 217
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 35% / 26%) promised a tight game; Millonarios found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 56% of the ball to Millonarios's 44%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.84 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortaleza CEIF and 2.00 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza CEIF win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 39%, draw 35%, Millonarios 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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