St. Pölten 1-0 Austria Lustenau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.11
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
17%
5.1
X/2
14%
6.54
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
24.85
2/2
10%
4.55
2/X
9%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 6% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
43%
+5.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Lustenau EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.23/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.44/1.58
-1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
267 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 73%
35.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
15.9 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pölten
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Austria Lustenau
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2025 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 0-1 HT 0-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
09.08.2024 St. Pölten St. Pölten 0-0 HT 0-0 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
01.11.2023 St. Pölten St. Pölten 4-0 HT 3-0 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AUK
08.05.2022 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 3-0 HT 3-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
31.10.2021 St. Pölten St. Pölten 1-1 HT 0-0 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
26.04.2016 St. Pölten St. Pölten 3-0 HT 1-0 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pölten
1-0
AWAY Austria Lustenau
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pölten vs Austria Lustenau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten nicked a narrow win over Austria Lustenau 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St. Pölten as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, St. Pölten had 62% of the ball to Austria Lustenau's 38%, shots finished 14-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pölten had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Pölten and 0.67 for Austria Lustenau.

What was the final score of St. Pölten vs Austria Lustenau?

St. Pölten 1-0 Austria Lustenau in the Austria - 1st Division on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pölten vs Austria Lustenau?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split St. Pölten 48%, draw 23%, Austria Lustenau 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pölten) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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