Vukovar 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
12%
13.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
+0.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vukovar EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 49%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.35/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.04
+43% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
22.5 Crosses 21.2
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vukovar
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.39 xG 1.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
266 Passes 322
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
01.08.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 Vukovar Vukovar HIR
29.11.2023 Vukovar Vukovar 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vukovar
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.54 xG 1.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 8
203 Passes 274
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vukovar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vukovar and Lokomotiva Zagreb shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vukovar had 44% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 56%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.54 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vukovar and 1.50 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Vukovar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Vukovar 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vukovar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vukovar 29%, draw 24%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →