Melbourne Victory (K) 4-1 Western United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 17 Nov 2024

Melbourne Victory (K)
4-1 HT 3-1
Western United (K)
📅17/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Western United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
3%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.4pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.0pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.9pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Western United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United (K) EU Bookmakers 32%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.85/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.55
-17% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
29.2 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.0

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Western United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Western United (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.47 xG 3.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 2
352 Passes 251
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 1-4 HT 0-2 Western United (K) Western United (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 4-1 Western United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
4-1
AWAY Western United (K)
1.40 xG 0.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
313 Passes 270
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Western United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) swept aside Western United (K) 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 52% of the ball to Western United (K)'s 48%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.40 to 0.96.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Western United (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 4-1 Western United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Western United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 48%, draw 22%, Western United (K) 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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