FC Eindhoven 1-1 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Nov 2024

FC Eindhoven
1-1 HT 0-0
MVV Maastricht
📅17/11/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.79
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
15%
5.0
X/2
12%
7.23
X/X
7%
5.45
2/1
6%
23.0
2/2
15%
4.68
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.95
Value flag · 2/X at 12.95 — our 11% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Eindhoven v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.67/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.66
-10% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.8 Crosses 14.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 0.98
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 Passes 318
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-3 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.10.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
31.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.09.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
29.01.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
17.09.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2

FC Eindhoven 1-1 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
1-1
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.66 xG 0.31
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
391 Passes 397
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven and MVV Maastricht couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was FC Eindhoven at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 50% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 50%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.66 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

FC Eindhoven 1-1 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 41%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Eindhoven), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Eindhoven) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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