FC Eindhoven 0-3 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2024

FC Eindhoven
0-3 HT 0-0
MVV Maastricht
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.35
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.38
X/2 EV+ ✓
15%
8.29
X/X
12%
5.63
2/1
9%
21.2
2/2
10%
5.67
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · X/2 at 8.29 — our 15% vs market 8.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Eindhoven v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.43/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.62
-20% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 72%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
21.3 Crosses 13.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.79 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 Passes 303
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
31.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.09.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
29.01.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
17.09.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
02.04.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2

FC Eindhoven 0-3 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
0-3
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.76 xG 2.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 11
361 Passes 351
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 24
37 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht swept aside FC Eindhoven 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Eindhoven at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 50% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 50%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.76 to 2.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

FC Eindhoven 0-3 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 44%, draw 24%, MVV Maastricht 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Eindhoven), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
26 Jan 2024
22:00 Telstar vs Den Bosch Analysis →
22:00 ADO Den Haag vs Emmen Analysis →
22:00 De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo Analysis →
22:00 Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Analysis →
22:00 Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
22:00 Roda vs Utrecht II Analysis →