De Graafschap 3-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.59
2-3 Goals
45%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
7.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 22% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.19
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
14%
4.24
X/2
7%
9.08
X/X
9%
5.86
2/1
6%
20.65
2/2
9%
6.26
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 26%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +27%
1.69/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.46
-17% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
25.8 Crosses 16.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-0D-5L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.63 xG 2.08
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
360 Passes 254
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.01.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
22.10.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
20.04.2019 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
3.61 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
22 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
351 Passes 391
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap cruised past VVV-Venlo 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 48% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 52%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 3.61 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for De Graafschap and 2.17 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

De Graafschap 3-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 51%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5
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