Groningen 4-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.85 — our 25% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.69
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
11%
18.4
X/1
15%
3.64
X/2
6%
14.0
X/X
7%
7.19
2/1
11%
20.2
2/2
10%
10.25
2/X
6%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.7pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.5pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.65/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.69
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
25.0 Crosses 9.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
4.00 xG 0.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
372 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 2
14 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
27.11.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-5 HT 0-2 Groningen Groningen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
4-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.04 xG 0.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
316 Passes 310
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen cruised past AZ Alkmaar II 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Groningen had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 49%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.04 to 0.39.

What was the final score of Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Groningen 4-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Groningen 54%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar II 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Over 2.5
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