Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.03
6+ Goals
13%
9.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.81
1/2
8%
23.45
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
7%
6.91
X/2
9%
4.61
X/X
12%
5.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
33.0
2/2
28%
2.75
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 49%
-1% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.36/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.34
+8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
18.9 Crosses 19.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
1W-2D-3L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 Passes 429
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.10.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
13.01.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
05.08.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.03.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 4-0 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
27.11.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.03.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
1-0
AWAY NAC Breda
0.59 xG 0.37
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
378 Passes 394
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport nicked a narrow win over NAC Breda 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 48% of the ball to NAC Breda's 52%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.59 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?

Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated an NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 31%, draw 25%, NAC Breda 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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