Kelty Hearts 3-2 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 17 Dec 2024

📅17/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
9.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
0.96/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.56
-37% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 1.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kelty Hearts
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Arbroath
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
17.08.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-3 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
24.07.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 3-2 HT 1-2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İKLK
POST-MATCH Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kelty Hearts squeezed past Arbroath 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Arbroath at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.50 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath?

Kelty Hearts 3-2 Arbroath in the Scotland - 1st Division on 17/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kelty Hearts 33%, draw 26%, Arbroath 42%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arbroath) ✗ Under 2.5
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