Lyon (K) 1-0 Wolfsburg (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 17 Dec 2024

📅17/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.28
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
Over
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
41%
4-5
25%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lyon (K) win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-12.2pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.5pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
3.03/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/4.83
-3% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
44.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
29.7 Crosses 7.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon (K)
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Wolfsburg (K)
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.10 xG 1.21
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 338
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2024 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) 0-2 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
30.08.2020 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) 1-3 HT 0-2 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
27.03.2019 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) 2-4 HT 0-2 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
20.03.2019 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 2-1 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) ŞMP-K
24.05.2018 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) 1-4 HT 0-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
29.03.2017 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg (K) Wolfsburg (K) ŞMP-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon (K)
1-0
AWAY Wolfsburg (K)
0.73 xG 0.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
482 Passes 346
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Lyon (K) vs Wolfsburg (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) squeezed past Wolfsburg (K) 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon (K) had 56% of the ball to Wolfsburg (K)'s 44%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.73 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lyon (K) and 1.00 for Wolfsburg (K).

What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs Wolfsburg (K)?

Lyon (K) 1-0 Wolfsburg (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 17/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs Wolfsburg (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 61%, draw 20%, Wolfsburg (K) 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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ŞMP-K More Champions League - Women's
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