Real Madrid (K) 1-2 Chelsea (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 17 Dec 2024

Real Madrid (K)
1-2 HT 1-0
Chelsea (K)
📅17/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Champions League - Women's – 2024/2025

Real Madrid (K) vs Chelsea (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.23
Over Pick
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
34%
4-5
26%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+0.7pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-14.3pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+14.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid (K) v Chelsea (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea (K) EU Bookmakers 49%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.94/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.94
+6% / +103% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -44%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
244 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 81%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.0
6.6 Crosses 23.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 0.0

Real Madrid (K) vs Chelsea (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid (K)
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Chelsea (K)
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.11 xG 1.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
297 Passes 424
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.10.2024 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 3-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K
24.01.2024 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K
15.11.2023 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
08.12.2022 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 1-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
23.11.2022 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K

Real Madrid (K) 1-2 Chelsea (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid (K)
1-2
AWAY Chelsea (K)
1.33 xG 2.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
428 Passes 325
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
6 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid (K) vs Chelsea (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea (K) edged past Real Madrid (K) 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea (K) as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Real Madrid (K) had 56% of the ball to Chelsea (K)'s 44%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.33 to 2.32.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Chelsea (K) led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Real Madrid (K) and 2.00 for Chelsea (K).

What was the final score of Real Madrid (K) vs Chelsea (K)?

Real Madrid (K) 1-2 Chelsea (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 17/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid (K) vs Chelsea (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid (K) 32%, draw 21%, Chelsea (K) 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea (K)), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
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