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Lyon (K) vs Atletico Madrid (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lyon (K) v Atletico Madrid (K) — Team-Based Signals
Lyon (K) vs Atletico Madrid (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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1-0
HT 0-0
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Atletico Madrid (K)
Dünya - Uluslararası Kupa Kadınlar
6-0
HT 3-0
Atletico Madrid (K)
ŞMP-K
1-3
HT 0-2
Lyon (K)
ŞMP-K
Lyon (K) 4-0 Atletico Madrid (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Lyon (K) swept aside Atletico Madrid (K) 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Lyon (K) had 67% of the ball to Atletico Madrid (K)'s 33%, shots finished 32-2, expected goals 3.31 to 0.23.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Lyon (K) and 0.33 for Atletico Madrid (K).
What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs Atletico Madrid (K)?
Lyon (K) 4-0 Atletico Madrid (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 17/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs Atletico Madrid (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 71%, draw 18%, Atletico Madrid (K) 12%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.