Atletico Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 18 Jan 2024

Atletico Madrid
4-2 HT 1-1
Real Madrid
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.2
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 28% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.85
1/2
11%
25.0
1/X
5%
11.9
X/1
11%
6.18
X/2
12%
5.58
X/X
17%
4.9
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
14%
3.32
2/X
5%
11.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.5pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 42%
-45% / -45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.02/2.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.57
-12% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -33%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 85%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
32.0 Crosses 7.8
5.0 Yellow Cards 3.3

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.34 xG 1.57
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
436 Passes 632
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-3 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSSK
24.09.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
26.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
18.09.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
08.05.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
4-2
AWAY Real Madrid
2.97 xG 1.86
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 19
12 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 9
482 Passes 722
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
22 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 31
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Atletico Madrid made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 41% of the ball to Real Madrid's 59%, shots finished 18-19, expected goals 2.97 to 1.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Madrid and 2.00 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Atletico Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 36%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 38%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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