Celaya 4-2 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Jan 2024

📅18/01/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.5pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -2%
1.60/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/2.06
-18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
395 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
1W-1D-1L
AWAY CA La Paz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
27.07.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
20.04.2023 Celaya Celaya 4-2 HT 2-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
27.07.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 0-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya beat CA La Paz 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celaya and 1.33 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Celaya vs CA La Paz?

Celaya 4-2 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Celaya 55%, draw 27%, CA La Paz 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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