Famalicao 1-2 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Jan 2024

Famalicao
1-2 HT 0-0
Sporting Braga
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Famalicao vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.95
Over 2.5
58%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.7
No
41%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.32
6+ Goals
13%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
23.45
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
15%
8.09
X/2
11%
4.27
X/X
6%
4.94
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.45
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.45 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+3.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.3pp
49%
Away Win
48%
+1.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
55%
+4.0pp
41%
BTTS No
45%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Famalicao v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 52%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.22/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.33
-13% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.9 Crosses 19.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Famalicao vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.20 xG 1.74
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
355 Passes 431
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.08.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-2 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
05.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
12.08.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
15.05.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 3-2 HT 1-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.01.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-2 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
15.03.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 2-2 HT 1-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR

Famalicao 1-2 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-2
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.92 xG 1.34
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
261 Passes 454
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Famalicao 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Famalicao had 40% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 60%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.92 to 1.34 — on chances, Famalicao could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Famalicao and 2.33 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Sporting Braga?

Famalicao 1-2 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 30%, draw 21%, Sporting Braga 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
18 Jan 2024
23:45 Vizela vs Sporting CP Analysis →