Servette 2-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 29% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
16%
4.21
X/2
14%
7.9
X/X
16%
5.08
2/1
8%
22.9
2/2
9%
5.81
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.4pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Servette EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +7%
1.86/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.58
+5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.5 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Servette
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.18
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
281 Passes 444
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
08.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 0-1 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
15.04.2023 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
05.04.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 1-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
19.03.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
29.10.2022 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Servette
2-1
AWAY Lugano
3.62 xG 0.42
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 5
353 Passes 233
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
43 Box Touches 13
42 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Servette vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Servette edged past Lugano 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Servette as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Servette had 59% of the ball to Lugano's 41%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 3.62 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Servette's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Servette and 1.17 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Servette vs Lugano?

Servette 2-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Servette vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Servette win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Servette 43%, draw 28%, Lugano 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Servette) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Servette) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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