Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 18 Feb 2024

Macarthur
1-2 HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
14%
5.46
X/2
12%
6.17
X/X
9%
5.52
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
16%
3.72
2/X
7%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.7pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 38%
+10% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.88/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.27
+12% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
22.6 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.67 xG 2.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
370 Passes 373
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
06.11.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 4-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
31.08.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK
06.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.36 xG 2.24
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
571 Passes 239
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
43 Box Touches 20
45 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix squeezed past Macarthur 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Wellington Phoenix made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 69% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 31%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 1.36 to 2.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Macarthur and 2.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 40%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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