Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 18 Feb 2024

Central Coast Mariners
1-0 HT 0-0
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.87
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.35
X/1
19%
4.93
X/2
13%
6.76
X/X
9%
5.03
2/1
6%
23.3
2/2
12%
4.47
2/X
8%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 6% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
1.76/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.65
+14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
18.2 Crosses 17.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.14
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 413
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
04.03.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
28.01.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-2 HT 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
05.11.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 0-3 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.04.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-2 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
18.12.2021 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 0-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1-0
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.26 xG 0.47
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 371
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners squeezed past Western Sydney Wanderers 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Central Coast Mariners as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 45% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 55%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 2.26 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Central Coast Mariners's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.00 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 43%, draw 26%, Western Sydney Wanderers 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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