Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 18 Feb 2024

Sturm Graz
1-1 HT 1-1
Rapid Wien
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 29% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.91
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
14%
4.76
X/2
10%
6.55
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
6%
24.15
2/2
15%
4.53
2/X
10%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Rapid Wien — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -20%
1.53/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.93
-2% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
21.5 Crosses 17.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
229 Passes 254
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
28.05.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-2 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
30.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
02.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-1 HT 2-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
10.02.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
28.08.2022 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Wien — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-1
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.42 xG 1.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
274 Passes 262
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz and Rapid Wien couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 51% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 49%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.42 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 38%, draw 30%, Rapid Wien 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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