Osijek 3-0 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 30% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-9.4pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.1pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 18%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
1.67/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.65
+1% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
24.6 Crosses 14.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
4W-0D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 0.84
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 222
69% Pass Accuracy 64%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.08.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
08.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.01.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
16.07.2022 Osijek Osijek 2-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
3-0
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.52 xG 0.60
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
467 Passes 205
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
39 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osijek vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek ran out comfortable winners over HNK Gorica 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Osijek as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Osijek had 65% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 35%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.52 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Osijek and 1.00 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Osijek vs HNK Gorica?

Osijek 3-0 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Osijek 52%, draw 29%, HNK Gorica 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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