MOL Fehervar 1-0 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 42%
+17% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.96/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.11
+75% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
289 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.4 Crosses 20.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MOL Fehervar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Debrecen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 3.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
358 Passes 292
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 3-1 HT 2-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.04.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
04.02.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-1 HT 0-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
03.09.2022 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 1-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.04.2022 Debrecen Debrecen 0-3 HT 0-2 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
05.02.2022 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-2 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MOL Fehervar
1-0
AWAY Debrecen
0.96 xG 1.12
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 9
234 Passes 466
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 39
7 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar nicked a narrow win over Debrecen 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day MOL Fehervar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, MOL Fehervar had 35% of the ball to Debrecen's 65%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.96 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Debrecen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MOL Fehervar and 1.50 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen?

MOL Fehervar 1-0 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split MOL Fehervar 36%, draw 27%, Debrecen 37%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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