Backa Topola 1-0 Radnik Surdulica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.32
Draw
28%
4.62
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.33
No
62%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
18%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-14.3pp
28%
Draw
18%
+9.5pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
39%
-0.7pp
62%
BTTS No
61%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Radnik Surdulica EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +7%
2.13/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.97
-10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +29%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
428 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 67%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.1
24.9 Crosses 11.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.13 xG 1.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
391 Passes 186
79% Pass Accuracy 63%
26 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 0-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
02.04.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 0-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
01.10.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 1-1 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
02.03.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-0 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
24.11.2021 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 2-1 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
11.03.2021 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 1-1 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRBK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-0
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
3.17 xG 0.16
72% Ball Possession 28%
20 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 0
484 Passes 132
85% Pass Accuracy 57%
47 Box Touches 4
42 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Radnik Surdulica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola nicked a narrow win over Radnik Surdulica 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Backa Topola had 72% of the ball to Radnik Surdulica's 28%, shots finished 20-2, expected goals 3.17 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Backa Topola's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Backa Topola and 0.67 for Radnik Surdulica.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Radnik Surdulica?

Backa Topola 1-0 Radnik Surdulica in the Serbia - Super League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Radnik Surdulica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 57%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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