ES Metlaoui 3-1 AS Marsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
42%
2.88
Away
21%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
74%
1.41
Over 2.5
26%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.29
No
64%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
1.96
2-3 Goals
32%
1.83
4-5 Goals
15%
6.64
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
26%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-5.8pp
42%
Draw
31%
+10.9pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-5.1pp
74%
Under 2.5
67%
+6.6pp
26%
Over 2.5
33%
-6.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.0pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 30%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
0.36/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-62% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -47%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Metlaoui
0W-3D-1L
AWAY AS Marsa
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.01.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-1 HT 0-1 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN1B
22.10.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-1 HT 0-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
31.10.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
19.04.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-2 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
POST-MATCH ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui beat AS Marsa 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 42% / 21%) promised a tight game; ES Metlaoui found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (74%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, AS Marsa led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.00 for AS Marsa.

What was the final score of ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa?

ES Metlaoui 3-1 AS Marsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split ES Metlaoui 37%, draw 42%, AS Marsa 21%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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