PAOK 1-4 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.91
2-3 Goals
45%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
10%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.11
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
15%
4.68
X/2
10%
6.23
X/X
11%
4.3
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
11%
4.64
2/X
5%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
43%
+6.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.18/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.03
-10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
17.8 Crosses 13.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Olympiakos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.06 xG 1.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
327 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-4 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.05.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.04.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
05.02.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
17.10.2022 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1-2 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.05.2022 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1-1 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
1-4
AWAY Olympiakos
1.03 xG 2.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
291 Passes 281
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos swept aside PAOK 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was PAOK at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, PAOK had 52% of the ball to Olympiakos's 48%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.03 to 2.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PAOK and 1.33 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Olympiakos?

PAOK 1-4 Olympiakos in the Greece - Super League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split PAOK 50%, draw 23%, Olympiakos 27%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ BTTS No
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