Notts County 1-1 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 18 Feb 2025

Notts County
1-1 HT 1-0
Colchester
📅18/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Colchester Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
15%
4.34
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 36% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
11%
4.75
X/2
10%
6.52
X/X
16%
3.99
2/1
10%
29.5
2/2
16%
5.16
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Colchester — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.59/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.39
+1% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
238 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 66%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
25.1 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Notts County vs Colchester Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Colchester
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.99 xG 2.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
527 Passes 266
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
48 Box Touches 19
40 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Colchester Colchester 5-4 HT 3-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
05.01.2019 Colchester Colchester 3-3 HT 2-3 Notts County Notts County İN2
04.08.2018 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
14.04.2018 Colchester Colchester 1-3 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
25.11.2017 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
01.04.2017 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 2-1 Colchester Colchester İN2

Notts County 1-1 Colchester — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-1
AWAY Colchester
1.47 xG 1.29
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
557 Passes 201
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 18
36 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County and Colchester shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Notts County had 71% of the ball to Colchester's 29%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.47 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Notts County and 1.83 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Colchester?

Notts County 1-1 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 18/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Notts County 40%, draw 28%, Colchester 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Notts County), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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