FS Jelgava 0-3 Valmiera / BSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.18
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
59%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.51
No
51%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
11%
+7.4pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
59%
Away Win
68%
-8.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.9pp
51%
BTTS No
64%
-12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 72%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -26%
0.98/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.08
-28% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -21%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
248 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 85%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
14.5 Crosses 29.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.94
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
208 Passes 289
64% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.11.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-1 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
13.08.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-2 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.06.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
24.04.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-0 HT 2-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
20.11.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
23.08.2020 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
0-3
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.60 xG 2.91
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 6
202 Passes 496
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS ran out comfortable winners over FS Jelgava 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 34% of the ball to Valmiera / BSS's 66%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 0.60 to 2.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.50 for Valmiera / BSS.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS?

FS Jelgava 0-3 Valmiera / BSS in the Latvia - Virsliga on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 19%, draw 22%, Valmiera / BSS 59%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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