Grobina 3-2 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
43%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
21%
+12.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
43%
Away Win
55%
-11.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
243 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
Crosses 26.2
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Liepaja
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10.07.2022 Grobina Grobina 2-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
3-2
AWAY Liepaja
2.88 xG 0.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
264 Passes 278
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Grobina vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina edged past Liepaja 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Liepaja at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grobina had 47% of the ball to Liepaja's 53%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 2.88 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Grobina's control.

What was the final score of Grobina vs Liepaja?

Grobina 3-2 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Grobina 33%, draw 24%, Liepaja 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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