Kampala City 4-0 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.67
Over 2.5
34%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
27%
2.09
No
73%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+10.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-10.2pp
27%
BTTS Yes
44%
-16.7pp
73%
BTTS No
56%
+16.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kampala City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
0.71/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.21/1.42
-64% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -76% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kampala City
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
13.02.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 1-1 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
05.01.2022 Kampala City Kampala City 1-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kampala City
4-0
AWAY Mbarara City
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kampala City vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kampala City ran out comfortable winners over Mbarara City 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kampala City as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (73%) landed while under 2.5 goals (66%) missed.

On the day, Kampala City had 57% of the ball to Mbarara City's 43%, shots finished 24-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kampala City had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kampala City and 0.50 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Kampala City vs Mbarara City?

Kampala City 4-0 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kampala City vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kampala City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kampala City 52%, draw 23%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kampala City), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kampala City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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