Rennes 2-1 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.38
6+ Goals
12%
12.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.44
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
14%
4.51
X/2
10%
8.63
X/X
14%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.75
2/2
13%
6.65
2/X
5%
14.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 27%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +23%
1.35/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.26
-11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.5 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Nantes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.68 xG 1.13
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
386 Passes 303
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
20.04.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
01.10.2023 Rennes Rennes 3-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
26.02.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
09.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
27.07.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
2-1
AWAY Nantes
2.77 xG 0.68
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
506 Passes 234
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes nicked a narrow win over Nantes 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rennes as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rennes had 66% of the ball to Nantes's 34%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.77 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rennes's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Rennes and 0.33 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Nantes?

Rennes 2-1 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rennes 45%, draw 26%, Nantes 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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