Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 18 Apr 2026

Arminia Bielefeld
1-1 HT 0-1
Nürnberg
📅18/04/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Arminia Bielefeld vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
17%
4.9
X/2
9%
7.54
X/X
9%
5.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.25
2/2
12%
5.18
2/X
9%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -16%
1.55/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.66
+4% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
407 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
24.4 Crosses 16.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Arminia Bielefeld vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
325 Passes 385
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.11.2025 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
17.03.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
09.09.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
06.06.2020 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
10.11.2019 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-5 HT 0-3 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
09.03.2018 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2

Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1-1
AWAY Nürnberg
0.96 xG 1.20
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
427 Passes 156
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld and Nürnberg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arminia Bielefeld at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 67% of the ball to Nürnberg's 33%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.96 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.17 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Nürnberg?

Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 49%, draw 24%, Nürnberg 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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