Emelec 1-3 Guayaquil City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
53%
+2.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Guayaquil City EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -24%
1.30/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.81
-15% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
20.7 Crosses 10.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Guayaquil City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.65 xG 0.47
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
284 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2025 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKVK
04.11.2023 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
30.05.2023 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City EKV1
24.07.2022 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
05.03.2022 Emelec Emelec 2-2 HT 2-1 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City EKV1
31.10.2021 Guayaquil City Guayaquil City 0-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
1-3
AWAY Guayaquil City
2.49 xG 1.97
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 2
273 Passes 498
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Guayaquil City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guayaquil City got the better of Emelec 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Emelec carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Emelec had 38% of the ball to Guayaquil City's 62%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.49 to 1.97 — on chances, Emelec could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Emelec and 0.33 for Guayaquil City.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Guayaquil City?

Emelec 1-3 Guayaquil City in the Ecuador - Premier on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Guayaquil City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Emelec 56%, draw 25%, Guayaquil City 19%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Emelec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
18 Apr 2026
01:00 Leones del Norte vs Aucas Analysis →
22:00 Mushuc Runa vs Tecnico Universitario Analysis →