Emelec vs Guayaquil City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Emelec v Guayaquil City — Team-Based Signals
Emelec vs Guayaquil City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
Guayaquil City
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
2-2
HT 2-1
Guayaquil City
EKV1
0-1
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
Emelec 1-3 Guayaquil City — Actual Match Statistics
Guayaquil City got the better of Emelec 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
This one beat our numbers. Emelec carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Emelec had 38% of the ball to Guayaquil City's 62%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.49 to 1.97 — on chances, Emelec could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Emelec and 0.33 for Guayaquil City.
What was the final score of Emelec vs Guayaquil City?
Emelec 1-3 Guayaquil City in the Ecuador - Premier on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Emelec vs Guayaquil City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Emelec 56%, draw 25%, Guayaquil City 19%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.