Lecce 0-2 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 May 2024

Lecce
0-2 HT 0-0
Atalanta
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Lecce vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.37
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
11%
14.05
X/1
9%
7.25
X/2
14%
4.43
X/X
10%
4.76
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.71
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
36%
Away Win
47%
-10.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.27/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.94
+4% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +28%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
20.0 Crosses 18.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lecce vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atalanta
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.90 xG 2.41
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
243 Passes 486
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
19.02.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
09.11.2022 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
01.03.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-7 HT 2-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.10.2019 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
12.02.2012 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA

Lecce 0-2 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
0-2
AWAY Atalanta
1.31 xG 1.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
360 Passes 477
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta saw off Lecce 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Atalanta found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lecce had 44% of the ball to Atalanta's 56%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.31 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 2.17 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Atalanta?

Lecce 0-2 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lecce 35%, draw 28%, Atalanta 36%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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