AC Milan (K) 3-1 Sampdoria (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.43
Over 2.5
50%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.81
No
62%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
71%
-14.7pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.4pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
51%
-13.4pp
62%
BTTS No
49%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria (K) EU Bookmakers 15%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.35/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.47
-15% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
406 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
19.7 Crosses 6.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Milan (K)
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Sampdoria (K)
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.73 xG 0.64
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
314 Passes 194
76% Pass Accuracy 65%
43 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) 1-3 HT 0-1 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) İTKSA
14.02.2024 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) 1-3 HT 1-1 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Milan (K)
3-1
AWAY Sampdoria (K)
1.93 xG 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
342 Passes 236
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
43 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Milan (K) vs Sampdoria (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Milan (K) got the better of Sampdoria (K) 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AC Milan (K) as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AC Milan (K) had 57% of the ball to Sampdoria (K)'s 43%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.93 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, AC Milan (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for AC Milan (K) and 1.00 for Sampdoria (K).

What was the final score of AC Milan (K) vs Sampdoria (K)?

AC Milan (K) 3-1 Sampdoria (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Milan (K) vs Sampdoria (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Milan (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split AC Milan (K) 56%, draw 23%, Sampdoria (K) 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Milan (K)) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AC Milan (K)) ✗ BTTS No
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