Forge 1-2 Vancouver FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 18 May 2024

Forge
1-2 HT 0-2
Vancouver FC
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.16
2-3 Goals
47%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 24% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.6pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forge v Vancouver FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 21%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.71/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.57
+0% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
20.8 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Forge vs Vancouver FC Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.71 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
444 Passes 253
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.09.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Forge Forge CAPL
29.07.2023 Forge Forge 2-0 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
21.06.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Forge Forge KAPL
20.05.2023 Forge Forge 0-0 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL

Forge 1-2 Vancouver FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
1-2
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.04 xG 1.24
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
449 Passes 206
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Forge vs Vancouver FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vancouver FC edged past Forge 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Forge at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Forge had 65% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 35%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.04 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Forge and 0.50 for Vancouver FC.

What was the final score of Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Forge 1-2 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Forge 48%, draw 29%, Vancouver FC 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Forge), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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