Sagan Tosu 0-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 May 2024

Sagan Tosu
0-2 HT 0-1
Nagoya Grampus
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Sagan Tosu vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.27
6+ Goals
12%
21.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.27 — our 23% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.22
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.75
X/2
16%
5.15
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
13%
3.6
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.7pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sagan Tosu v Nagoya Grampus — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.22/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.15
+10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.8 Crosses 15.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0

Sagan Tosu vs Nagoya Grampus Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.53 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
413 Passes 374
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
04.03.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
14.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.03.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
17.07.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.04.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Nagoya Grampus — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.73 xG 2.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
323 Passes 382
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 37
13 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus got the better of Sagan Tosu 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 48% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 52%, shots finished 5-20, expected goals 0.73 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sagan Tosu and 0.67 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 33%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 39%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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