El Paso Locomotive 1-2 Memphis 901 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.97
Over 2.5
42%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.63
No
56%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 33% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
47%
+11.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
53%
-11.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
57%
-13.2pp
56%
BTTS No
43%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Memphis 901 EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +5%
1.14/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.54
+1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
16.8 Crosses 14.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Memphis 901
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.12 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
2 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 2
444 Passes 393
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Memphis 901 Memphis 901 4-0 HT 2-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1-2
AWAY Memphis 901
0.93 xG 1.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
308 Passes 285
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 14
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Memphis 901
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Memphis 901 edged past El Paso Locomotive 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Memphis 901 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 50% of the ball to Memphis 901's 50%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.93 to 1.91.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Memphis 901?

El Paso Locomotive 1-2 Memphis 901 in the USL Championship on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Memphis 901?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 38%, draw 27%, Memphis 901 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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