Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 May 2025

Fagiano Okayama
2-1 HT 1-1
Albirex Niigata
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.45
Over 2.5
36%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.77
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.89
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
14%
5.19
X/2
17%
5.91
X/X
10%
3.46
2/1
10%
35.0
2/2
14%
4.75
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
32%
-4.9pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
65%
-1.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
35%
+1.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.9pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fagiano Okayama v Albirex Niigata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 34%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.05/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.19
-12% / +115% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.2 Crosses 16.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4

Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
174 Passes 529
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.07.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-3 HT 2-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.04.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
31.10.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
13.06.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
21.10.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
15.08.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2

Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Albirex Niigata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.16 xG 0.91
44% Ball Possession 56%
21 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
289 Passes 436
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama squeezed past Albirex Niigata 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Fagiano Okayama found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 44% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 56%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.16 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fagiano Okayama's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.83 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata?

Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 38%, draw 27%, Albirex Niigata 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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