Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 Naples — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
22%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
42%
+10.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.3pp
21%
Away Win
28%
-6.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.6pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Naples EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
Crosses 7.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
2-1
AWAY Naples
1.05 xG 0.74
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 97
84% Pass Accuracy 59%
34 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine nicked a narrow win over Naples 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Portland Hearts of Pine as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 72% of the ball to Naples's 28%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.05 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 Naples in the USA - USL League 1 on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 52%, draw 26%, Naples 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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