Caerau (Ely) 3-4 Trefelin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 18 Jul 2025

Caerau (Ely)
3-4
Trefelin
📅18/07/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - League Cup – 2025/2026

Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
33%
3.64
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.5
No
38%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.4pp
33%
Draw
24%
+8.6pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.1pp
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
-0.5pp
38%
BTTS No
38%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Trefelin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Trefelin EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +76%
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
256 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Trefelin
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
The Meetings
26.07.2024 Trefelin Trefelin 1-0 HT 0-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
20.07.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-1 HT 2-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALLK
05.01.2024 Trefelin Trefelin 3-1 HT 2-1 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
17.11.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-0 HT 1-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trefelin squeezed past Caerau (Ely) 4-3 away from home. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 33% / 31%) promised a tight game; Trefelin found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 1.25 for Trefelin.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin?

Caerau (Ely) 3-4 Trefelin in the Wales - League Cup on 18/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 37%, draw 33%, Trefelin 31%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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